Monday, November 30, 2015

IMF's Acceptance Of The Chinese Renminbi (Yuan): Implications

IMF's Acceptance Of The Chinese Renminbi (Yuan): Implications

The following material was derived from an article which appeared in The New York Times, today, November 30, 2015, and which was subsequently posted in Yahoo News. The implications, both short-term and in the longer-term are far-reaching and may produce increased pressure against the U.S. Dollar in the global Marketplace. It stands to benefit China in terms of international trade and capital markets, while having a potentially negative effect on the U.S. Currency's valuation and the U.S.' ability to compete in the global marketplace. Links to each of the two articles follow below:

In its simplest form, the renminbi, will now be join the USD and other long-standing preferred reserve currencies as a new preferred reserve currency and as a member of the market basket of currencies that comprise SDRs (Special Drawing Rights), which are the surrogate currency which the central banks of the world use to settle interbank debts through the IMF (International Monetary Fund). Possible implications are listed below for your review and evaluation:

=+ A percentage of the world's banks will now hold renminbi instead of dollars in their reserve portfolio. This will place a downward pressure on the USD just based upon the law of supply and demand;

=+ An increasing number of international transactions will now be denominated in renminbi in lieu of USD;

=+ There will be a strengthening of the renminbi and a weakening of the USD;

=+ China's position as an exporter (driven largely by its pricing advantages) will be somewhat more challenged, while the U.S.' potential as an exporter will be strengthened due to a “cheaper” currency;

=+ There may be an influx of USD back into the U.S. Which may be perceived by the Fed as being inflationary, which will put pressure on the Fed to increase domestic interest rates;

=+ The U.S securities markets will be adversely affected;

=+ The Chinese securities markets will be favorably impacted;

=+ U.S. Banks may risk slight credit downgrades;

=+ Chinese banks will experience increased credit stability.

In sum, the longer-term effect of this move by the IMF will cause some additional economic hardship for the U.S.

Douglas Castle

Tags, Labels, Keywords, Categories And Search Terms For This Article:
IMF, SDR, renminbi, reserve, currency, FOREX, international, banking, global, economics, Douglas E. Castle, GEIconsulting, The Global Futurist, The Internationalist Page

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